Ryan Stayton

Dammit, Len. Who puts the 15^th ranked team in their preseason Final Four prediction? Dick.

While we all hope this year’s team returns us to M’s last glory days (this time sans Satan), The Deodorant Classic ironically took us back to that era, albeit the disappointing weekend where 1996’s highly ranked and undefeated edition went to Hawaii and lost 2 of 3 games against unranked opponents in the Rainbow Classic. That team proceeded to fall apart, a.k.a. make the NIT, aka ASS Tourney. Dare we fear the same?

Of course. What’s funny (i.e. not funny) is that last year’s Purdue, @Minnie, Iowa & Clemson games proved so joyous as to erase all memory of all the flaws that plagued the team much of last season. Consider this weekend’s comedy of errs:

• Defense: If you’ve ever played against a zone defense (e.g. against those prick IM teams channeling their stint on their high school varsity squadron’s bench), you know how difficult it is. When it works, it’s smothering (see 1^st half v Bama), but when it fails, it’s Defcon 1. Like any zone, it fails against athletic teams than can penetrate (see Marquette) or teams threeballing out of their noggins(most college zones inevitably yield open three looks assuming patience, defenders just hope those teams don’t hit an unusually high percentage of threes—see Wisconsin at home v. Michigan every year for 15 years) (see Marquette). When the zone fails, our size deficiency makes successful man-to-man D nearly impossible (4 guards and a forward can’t defend 2 PGs, 2 Fs and a C).
• Three Pointing: Turns out the extra point is for extra difficulty, and turns out we’re dying by it. LLP’s shooting well; no one else is. We built a double digit lead in the 1^st half v Bama without hitting a single 3 but by game’s end confirmed that’s not a recipe we can simmer for a full 40.
• Point Guarding: Argh, Darius! The tools are there, but the execution isn’t. He struggled (against Bama in particular). Patience = no turnovers +create open looks for others + finish in transition + finish around the rim.
• Rebounding: We signed on for this, but not this bad. Manny, like his teammates, is not built to rebound, but rebound he does. Teammates, take notes: box out and be aggressive. Bama’s game winner was an uncontested put-back dunk.

Should you book your ticket to MSG in early April?

Of course not… yet. There’s reason for concern, but unlike the Fisher/Ellerbe/Amaker belly floppers, there’s reason to keep your bandwagon seat warm. Notably:

• Three Pointing: The team’s slumping, they’re not terrible. We all know Manny won’t shoot 10% for the year. And Novak and Douglass will make shots (in part by taking better shots). The hurdle remains that though last year’s team shot threes aplenty, their success rate was average and improving said rate is one to-do if they’re to be the top 15 team we want. When Darius acclimates and learns the offense, his athleticism should create more open looks. Which brings us to:
• Darius: Kid’s been in college 3 months. At that point I still couldn’t believe how early an 8:30 AM class felt. He’s super talented but needs game experience to adjust to the speed of the game, and I have every reason to believe he’ll do so and will earn more minutes. Right now we miss Lee and Merritt. By season’s end we won’t.
• Peedi: His post game, though solid, always concerned me last year since our shortness typically meant our opponents’ tallest defenders were on him, but he delivered. He needs to assert himself, and has been yielding thus far more than he should to:
• Manny: Bona fide stud. Everything but his three-ability looks improved. Kid is quick off the dribble and not putting the ball in his hands at the end of the Bama game was a flagrant Beilein foul (though I expect the play was called for Darius to drive and dish, when Bama pressed—like we should have done at the end of regulation v Creighton—he didn’t have time to get it up court and pass). He can score and/or draw fouls at will.
• Everyone else: I heart what I’ve seen from LLP and Gibson. Everyone else: settle down. You’re still young. We can always get an uncontested 3, so stop air balling tough looks. As a fellow rager’s pops astutely observed: last year when Manny & Peedi did their things, if a 3^rd player had a big game we were unstoppable.
• Free throws: This one actually doesn’t concern me. Last year was a historically good year, and so far this year the team’s only average, which seems terrible relative to last year. I suspect it’s translated frustration and can’t imagine the team regressing here. Another slump that’s sure to pass.
• Beezer Ball: Last year’s team was a lot better by year’s end relative to November ’08, and there’s no reason to think the same won’t happen this year (to reiterate: Darius’s improvement alone will make everyone else better). Plus El DeBeez can settle into a more regular rotation he’s (i.e. we’re) comfortable with.
• Weirdness: Per the ’96 Rainbow Classic, these early season tourneys get nutty. It’s a holiday weekend far from home in front of small crowds against teams whose quality remains TBD (for the record I think Marquette’s good, Creighton’s decent and Alabama is not good).

Don’t confuse any of the above for optimism; this is me grasping at straws, a.k.a. the impossible notion that this year’s team is worse than last year’s. Make nil mistake: we’re in deep, deep trouble. At the very least, last weekend will bump us down a seed or two in the dance. At worst… shut up, it’s only November.